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Electrification and Energy Sovereignty: What the World Could Look Like by 2050

The report "The Future of Energy Transition and Independence by 2050" outlines three global energy-climate scenarios—EnerBase (status quo), EnerBlue (aligned with current NDCs), and EnerGreen (aligned with the Paris Agreement). These scenarios show diverging paths for fossil fuel dependence, electrification, and global emissions.

Fossil fuel demand peaks soon, with oil expected to top in 2032. By 2050, EnerGreen envisions oil dropping to 34 Mbd and gas by 65% globally. CO₂ emissions could fall from 32 Gt (EnerBase) to just 6 Gt (EnerGreen). Electricity’s role surges across sectors, with final electricity consumption reaching 47% of global energy use in EnerGreen, driven by EVs (70% of the fleet), heat pumps (44% of space heating), and electric industrial systems.

Renewables take center stage, with their share in the primary energy mix rising to 65% under EnerGreen. This shift boosts energy independence—reducing foreign fuel imports for the EU, Japan, China, and India—while cutting household heating bills by up to 70%.

Efficiency and sufficiency policies could reduce building and transport energy demand by 32%. With renewable electricity reaching up to 89% of global generation and CO₂ intensity dropping to just 8 gCO₂/kWh, the path to a sustainable, sovereign energy future is both feasible and urgent.