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New Study Warns: 1.5°C Climate Goal Slipping Away as CO₂ Emissions Rise in 2024

A recent study published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (April 11, 2025) has raised serious concerns about the shrinking window to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The paper, titled “Global carbon emissions and decarbonization in 2024”, reveals that global CO₂ emissions increased by 0.9% in 2024 compared to 2023, reaching 36.3 gigatonnes (Gt)—or about 99.3 million tonnes per day.

The biggest contributors to the rise were India and Russia, while China reported a slight decrease. On the positive side, non-fossil energy sources grew by 6.2%, resulting in 9.8 Gt of avoided emissions (Scope 4). However, this growth was not enough to offset the overall increase in emissions.

The report estimates that only 0–205 Gt of CO₂ remains in the carbon budget for the 1.5°C target, which could be exhausted within just 5.1 years—or may already have been surpassed. For the 2°C target, about 860–955 Gt CO₂ remains, which could run out in 21–24 years if current emission rates continue.

This data highlights the urgent need for rapid decarbonization globally. Delays now will make climate targets much harder—and costlier—to achieve in the near future.