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Adani Power Set to Double Thermal Market Share by FY32

According to a Morgan Stanley report, Adani Power is on track to almost double its thermal power market share to 15% by FY32, with capacity expected to rise 2.5 times to 41.9 GW. Currently, Adani Power holds an 8% market share (FY25), making it the second-largest power producer in India after NTPC.

The growth will be supported by $27 billion in capital expenditure, with 60–65% funded through internal accruals. The brokerage highlighted that timely project completions and new power purchase agreements (PPAs) will be key earnings drivers. Adani Power has also resolved most of its regulatory issues and currently maintains a healthy balance sheet with net debt/Ebitda at 1.5x (FY25).

By FY32, capacity is projected to rise from 18.15 GW in Q1 FY26 to 41.9 GW, driving Ebitda to Rs67,200 crore by FY33, a 17?GR from FY22–FY33. Net debt is expected to peak at Rs1.32 lakh crore by FY31, with a net debt-to-Ebitda ratio peaking at 3.2x by FY29 before improving.

This expansion aligns with India’s goal of adding 80 GW of coal capacity by FY32, backed by a PPA pipeline exceeding 20 GW. Adani’s acquisitions, including 2.9 GW of power plants, are also expected to boost profitability.