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Adani Power Poised for Major Growth Amid Rising Power Demand; Targets 41.9 GW by FY32

Adani Power, India’s largest private-sector thermal power producer, is strategically positioned to capitalize on the country’s growing electricity demand, with plans to expand its capacity from 18.1 GW currently to 41.9 GW by FY32.

The company’s operational capacity comprises 10.8 GW of organic and 7.3 GW of inorganic capacity, and it continues to set benchmarks in project execution, including the synchronisation of 4,620 MW at Mundra within 36 months. Adani Power has also adopted proactive measures such as pre-ordering critical equipment and securing key enablers like land, PPAs, and environmental clearances.

“India’s projected peak power demand is expected to reach 700 GW by 2047,” the company noted. “Thermal power remains indispensable to ensure grid reliability, especially as renewable energy penetration increases.”

With strong operating metrics—including 71% PLF and 91% PAF—analysts expect Adani Power to achieve operational capacity of 41.3 GW by FY32, while improving EBITDA per MW from Rs 13 million in FY25 to Rs 18 million by FY32.

Market Opportunity
India’s peak power demand is expected to grow from 250 GW in FY24 to 386 GW by FY32, highlighting the need for dependable base-load thermal generation alongside variable renewable energy. Experts estimate that coal-fired generation capacity will require 97 GW of new capacity by 2035 and an additional 137 GW by 2047 to offset retirements.

Financial Outlook
To support capital expenditure of Rs 2 trillion between FY25 and FY32, net debt/EBITDA is projected to rise from 1.6x in FY25 to 3.0x by FY29, before moderating to 1.6x by FY31 as new capacity becomes operational. Analysts forecast a revenue CAGR of 15% and EBITDA CAGR of 18% over FY25–FY28, driven by robust capacity additions.

The stock currently trades at 10x trailing EV/EBITDA and 4.7x P/B, and analysts value it at 13x FY28 EV/EBITDA, setting a target price of Rs 178 per share, implying a 20% upside.

Execution Track Record
Adani Power’s rapid expansion is supported by its proven execution capabilities. Post-COVID, the company was quick to respond to rising demand, which grew 6.7%, 6.3%, and 12.7% during FY22, FY23, and FY24, respectively. With secured land, clearances, and equipment, the company is well-positioned to achieve its 41.9 GW capacity target by FY32–FY33.

Analysts highlight that Adani Power’s combination of execution excellence, strong operational metrics, and disciplined capital management makes it a compelling investment in India’s growing thermal power sector.