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India’s Solar Manufacturing Sector Evolves from Rapid Expansion to Global Competitiveness

EUPD Research’s new report, “India’s Solar Surge: The Next Looming PV Price Shock?”, provides a comprehensive look at how India’s solar manufacturing landscape is transitioning from rapid, government-driven growth to a more mature phase defined by global competition, advanced technology, and sustainability-led strategies.

According to the analysis, India is expected to add nearly 213 GWdc of new solar capacity between 2025 and 2029, averaging 42 GWdc annually. By 2030, the country's module manufacturing capacity could surpass 280 GW, while cell manufacturing capacity is projected to jump from 26 GW in 2025 to around 171 GW. This positions India among the world’s most significant and integrated PV manufacturing hubs.

The country’s rising scale is also unlocking major export possibilities. At a 65?pacity Utilisation Factor (CUF)—considered the breakeven threshold for most producers—India’s module export potential could reach 143 GW by 2030. With the US market tightening due to stricter trade rules, Indian manufacturers will increasingly need to expand their presence across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa to maintain output and reduce market dependency.

Markus AW Hoehner, Founder and CEO of EUPD Group, emphasized that the industry must now shift from scaling up capacity to strengthening global competitiveness. He noted the importance of identifying resilient markets, meeting stricter sustainability standards, and delivering high-quality products to sustain long-term growth.

India’s cost competitiveness has improved notably. The price gap between Indian and Chinese TOPCon modules narrowed from 9 US¢/W in early 2024 to 5.7 US¢/W by October 2025. This progress stems from improvements in automation, manufacturing integration, operational efficiency, and economies of scale. However, India’s minimum sustainable prices still stand 14–17% higher than those in China and Southeast Asia, highlighting the continued need for technological and process advancements.

India also enjoys structural advantages in markets where sustainability and carbon performance matter—especially Europe. Freight charges for shipping modules from India to Europe account for about 5% of total module costs, compared with 8.7% for shipments from China. Additionally, emissions from transporting modules from India are approximately 65% lower. These factors position Indian manufacturers favorably as Europe tightens industrial and carbon compliance rules.

The proposed EU–India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) could further strengthen India’s market position through potential mutual certification, streamlined standards, joint investments, and deeper technology collaboration.

Rajan Kalsotra, Senior Consultant at EUPD Research, stated that India’s expanding manufacturing ecosystem is increasingly aligned with global regions seeking diversified and transparent supply chains. However, he cautioned that sustained competitiveness will require manufacturers to navigate oversupply conditions and intensifying price pressure.

Looking ahead, India’s long-term strength in the solar manufacturing sector will depend on advancements in high-efficiency technologies, enhanced ESG and innovation performance, and early alignment with emerging European regulatory and emissions frameworks. Companies that identify the right markets, differentiate their product offerings, and rely on strong data-driven insights will be best positioned to convert current momentum into durable global leadership.

EUPD Research concludes that in an increasingly competitive environment, strategic clarity, agility, and disciplined execution will matter more than scale alone. Indian manufacturers must move beyond volume expansion and shift toward precise market segmentation, customer-focused product strategies, and technology alignment with profitable demand. Over the last 25 years, EUPD Research has supported this transition through robust market intelligence, stakeholder engagement, and strategic foresight—critical tools for companies aiming to lead India’s next phase of solar manufacturing growth.